Patrick Mahomes has an Early Claim to the Hall of Fame

It is only Week 9 and the NFL is already off to a bang.

There have been many captivating storylines thus far including the undefeated start of the high-flying Rams, the early impact of Khalil Mack on the Bears, and the emergence of Baker Mayfield and the Browns. However, perhaps the most notable breakthrough has been the unprecedented play of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Besides guiding his team to a 8-1 record, more impressive has been his personal achievement through the air, particularly in the first 3 weeks of the season. Throwing for a record-breaking 13 TD passes in that span, Mahomes eclipsed previous passing TD marks in Weeks 1-3 held by the likes of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Anytime someone breaks a record, you want to see if it means anything. That is exactly what I will do in this article, as I seek to project the trajectory of career outcomes for Mahomes. Given his immense and exciting potential as a 23-year old dual-threat quarterback with a big arm, it is only natural to look ahead into the future and speculate over just how successful “The Gunslinger” can be.

Having played just 7 NFL games, Mahomes is obviously more limited than most in the degree to which he can be assessed from an analytical perspective. However, his historic streak of passing TDs to begin his career places him in good company, among an impressive number of Hall of Fame signal-callers.

According to Pro Football Reference, this correlation between quarterback success in Weeks 1-3 and career success is surprisingly strong. For the purposes of this article, I will define “success in Weeks 1-3” as having thrown for 9 or more TDs during this span, something only 18 other quarterbacks have done throughout the history of the NFL. I will define “career success” as having been inducted into the Hall of Fame or being projected as a first-ballot HOFer (For the purposes of this study: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees). Additionally, in order to determine if a streak of this nature has often been a fluke, I will look at those who are not members or projected members of the Hall of Fame and see if they have still been productive NFL quarterbacks, defining “career success” in this scenario as having had 3 or more Pro Bowl seasons.